Data Appendix

AI Market Economics

Revenue Data, Market Projections, and Cost Structures — Interactive Charts with Verified Sources
Compiled February 2026 30+ Verified Sources 326 Indie Projects Analyzed Companion to: AI Profit Landscape Brief
$391B
AI Market (2025)
Grand View Research
78%
Enterprise Adoption
McKinsey State of AI
3.2:1
Talent Demand Ratio
Demand vs. supply (US)
$3.70
ROI per $1 Invested
Top performers: $10.30

A. AI Market Size Projections (2023–2030)

Three independent research firms project the global AI market between $827B and $1.59T by 2030. The range reflects different scoping methodologies, but all three agree on 25-35% compound annual growth.

Exhibit A — Market Size by Source

Billions USD, 2023–2030 projections from Grand View Research, Statista, Fortune Business Insights

B. Where the Money Actually Lands

Of 326 indie AI projects with disclosed revenue, nearly half earn under $1,000/month. The top 1.2% — 4 projects — exceed $50,000/month. These aren't random; they're domain-specific tools with clear customer acquisition paths.

Exhibit B-1 — Revenue Distribution

326 indie AI projects, monthly revenue (Freemius 2025)

Exhibit B-2 — Failure Analysis

Primary causes of AI startup failure (90% rate)
Key Finding

46% of projects earn $500–$1,000/month. The differentiator for the top earners is never the AI itself — it's the problem being solved and the specificity of the customer they serve. Generic wrappers account for the majority of the failure column.

C. Verified Solo Founder / Small Team Revenue

Real products with confirmed revenue — not fundraising announcements or pitch deck projections.

Product Founder Annual Revenue Category Team Timeline Status
Cursor Anysphere $1,000,000,000 AI Code Editor Small team 17 months to $1B Active
Lovable $200,000,000 AI App Builder Small team 8 months to $100M Active
Photo AI Pieter Levels $1,656,000 AI Photo Generation 1 person 18 months Active
HeadshotPro Danny Postma $1,000,000+ AI Headshots 1 person <12 months to $1M ARR Active
Base44 Maor Shlomo $80,000,000 exit AI App Builder 1 person Solo build to acquisition Acquired
AutoShorts.ai Eric Smith $1,200,000+ Video Automation 1 person $100K+ MRR achieved Active
PDF.ai $600,000 Document Intelligence 1-2 people ~12 months Active
Construction SaaS "Marcus" $660,000 Vertical SaaS 1 person 400+ paying customers Active
TypingMind $396,000 Custom AI Interface 1 person Ongoing growth Active

D. Consulting & Freelance Rate Structure

Current market rates for AI-related consulting and freelance work, stratified by experience tier. These rates reflect what people are actually charging and getting paid, not theoretical ceilings.

Exhibit D — Rate Ranges by Tier

USD per hour, US market, Feb 2026

Exhibit E — API Cost per Request

Claude models, avg ~500 token request

E. Cost Structure: AI Products vs. Traditional Software

The structural economics problem with AI products: every customer interaction consumes API tokens. Traditional SaaS pays infrastructure once and serves at near-zero marginal cost. AI SaaS pays per inference. This compresses margins from 80-90% to 50-65%.

Exhibit F — Margin Comparison

Gross margin vs. API cost as % of revenue

Exhibit G — Enterprise AI Spending

Billions USD, by segment (2022–2026 projected)

F. Claude API Pricing Reference

ModelInput / 1M TokensOutput / 1M TokensAvg Cost / RequestMonthly (10K req/day)Batch Discount
Claude Haiku (fast)$1.00$5.00$0.003$90050%
Claude Sonnet (balanced)$3.00$15.00$0.009$2,70050%
Claude Opus (premium)$5.00$25.00$0.015$4,50050%

Note: Prompt caching cuts input costs 90%. A small product on Haiku handling 10,000 daily requests costs $50–$150/month after caching. Price AI products at 3-5x API costs minimum to sustain margins.

G. Key Market Statistics

StatisticValueSource
Enterprise AI Adoption78%McKinsey State of AI, 2025
Companies Increasing AI Budget88%PwC AI Survey
AI Talent Demand Ratio3.2:1Signify Technology
AI Startup Failure Rate90%Multiple sources
Enterprise Pilot Failure Rate95%MIT NANDA, Aug 2025
Early Adopter ROI (per $1)$3.70Deloitte
Top Performer ROI (per $1)$10.30Deloitte
AI Market CAGR (2025–2030)30.6%Grand View Research
AI Engineer Avg Salary$206,000Coursera, 2025
Prompt Engineer Median Salary$126,000Industry surveys
Bottom Line

AI is a leverage tool, not a product category. It multiplies existing skills. The fastest path to revenue is domain expertise + AI acceleration — doing what you already know how to do, faster, better, at scale. The question isn't "can I make money with AI?" — it's "what do I know that most people don't, and can AI make that more valuable?"